Since the year is coming to an end, we recently asked Curbed readers for their thoughts on what the future holds for the Hamptons real estate market. As you'll see in a moment, the responses varied dramatically. Some forecasted doom and gloom while others seemed optimistic for what's in store for 2013 and beyond. Here now, the best of what our anonymous prognosticators had to say:
A STRONG START
"Q1 should be on fire. Everyone looking for a safe place to put their money and Hamptons real estate (especially SOH) has always been a good investment and you get to enjoy it....add crazy low mortgage rates to the equation and sellers should be in a good spot if they're realistic."
ASKS CONTINUE TO CONFOUND
"I predict asking prices will go much higher and selling price will be much lower. As much as 75% from asking price."
DEPENDS ON THE PRICEPOINT
"Lower end: Fierce price competition for both seller and buyers.
Mid-range: Prices will continue to plummet.
High-end: The boom will continue as people with more money than god and less sense than a horse's ass keep buying $19m spec houses for $14m and thinking the stole them.
More small contractors will go out of business and real estate brokers will eat their young to make a deal."
ABANDON ALL HOPE
"In 5 years the Hamptons will look like the Hudson Valley in the 60's. Abandoned mansions with peeling paint and grass that hasn't been mowed in years will be deeded back to the town to escape property tax liability."
SOMEONE'S BEEN DOING THEIR HOMEWORK
"(a) Only the really, really great properties will command good prices (i.e. unique, irreplacable estate area parcels). Anything else will sell for 15% to 30% below "ask".
(b) The death-spiral of the Northwest woods and Bridgehampton North markets will continue as the housing stock there ages and people even further defer maintenance. There is a wildly high amount of inventory available in those markets, 95% of it wildly overpriced. Many people up there can't afford their homes and the rental value is too weak to support the payments. There will be more defaults up there.
(c) Corallary to (b), people will continue to choose the convenience and charm of living in villages (EH Village, SH, Amag) in smaller homes with much less land over the temptation of living "North" in a McMansion on 3 acres.
(d) The "North" 3 acre/McMansion/pool/tennis market will continue to get pummeled.
(e) Construction costs will rise due to Superstorm Sandy, catching everyone by surprise. Yay local builders - you are in for a few good years!!
(f) Corallary to (e), higher construction costs will eventually make it more attractive to buy an existing home that is "cheap", so expect lots of low-ball offers on anything not in the estate districts or in the villages. Sells - TAKE THE LOW BALL BIDS!
(g) estate districts and villages will be where all the spec building action is for the next 10 yrs."
OUR PERSONAL FAVORITE
"I predict the snarky comments about prices, properties and people will continue through 2013."
· What Are Your Predictions For Next Year's Real Estate Market? [Curbed Hamptons]
· Previously, on Thursday Open Threads [Curbed Hamptons]