[With Prudential Douglas Elliman's Hamptons and North Fork market report dropping today, we invited Curbed graph guru Jonathan Miller to drop by the East End this week and share some of his analytic real estate wisdom. We supplied the sunscreen.]
Today we released our report on the Hamptons/North Fork market so I thought I'd run a comparison of price trends and monthly absorption (inventory and sales) to show how they match up.
Inflation-adjusted Median Sales Price: I selected median sales price adjusted for inflation to remove the outliers (and there have been a lot of those (ie $20M+ sales) in the past several years). The two markets seemed generally trend together until mid-2007 (beginning of credit crunch was in August 2007) when the East End began to show a noticeable price decline while Manhattan bounced around yet still trended lower.
Monthly Absorption Rate: Over the same period, I measured the rate of absorption (the number of months to sell off existing inventory at the current pace of sales). While I don't have monthly historical data for the East End prior to 2007, the trend seems to be the same. The month rate of absorption expands at a greater rate in the Hamptons/North Fork market than Manhattan did. Sales activity was losing the race against inventory entering the market. However, both markets have very high rates of absorption right now, roughly double the norm, so neither market is noticeably better in this regard.
· Manhattan v. Hamptons: Price and Absorption Trends [Miller-Samuel]