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Three Cents Worth: Hamptons Real Estate Gets Absorbent!

This week, our graph guy (oh, and Prudential Douglas Elliman market guru) Jonathan Miller gets sand on his spreadsheet to celebrate the launch of CurbedHamptons. His topic this time: price trends and absorption for the entire East End.

The median sales price, adjusted for inflation, peaked in the second quarter of 2007 and has declined 35.6% over the subsequent two years. CPI-adjusted median sales price fell 23.1% from the same period last year to $605,000 in the first quarter of this year. A significant contributor to the declining price trend over the past six months has been the decline in the market share of high end property sales—yet contrary to popular belief, they are still occurring. We know of two $10 million places and a $15 million one that recently went to contract. Plus, there's the expected seasonal uptick in signed contracts to keep an eye on.

The monthly rate of absorption—the number of months it would take to sell all available listing inventory at the current pace of sales—spiked in the first quarter to 34.2 months due to the combination of a sharp drop in number of sales (down 49.8%) and rise in listing inventory (up 23.9%). Inventory has not increased as much as sales have declined—more sellers are opting to withhold listing their properties until things improve and/or offer them as rentals.
· Hamptons/North Fork Sales Price vs. Monthly Absorption [Miller-Samuel]